The presented paper is devoted to the current problem of assessing the dynamics of changes in the groundwater level on the coast of the Absheron peninsula in the context of the anticipated decline in the level of the Caspian Sea over the upcoming years. This decrease directly affects the hydrological regime of coastal aquifers, which can entail a number of serious geo-ecological consequences, including changes in the groundwater level, activation of saltwater intrusion, changes in the bearing properties of soils, degradation of vegetation cover, and the emergence of potential risks for existing coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. In this paper, an approach based on the use of analytical and semi-analytical methods is chosen, which represents an effective compromise for obtaining a rapid and physically sound assessment of hydrodynamic processes in porous soil materials. The aim of this work is to study the change in groundwater levels in order to control the aridification of the coastal zone of the Caspian Sea. The object of the study is the coastal zone of the Absheron peninsula, and the upper horizons of the Pliocene deposits are consi­dered as a model geological section. A mathematical model based on the Boussinesq equation is used to predict the dynamics of groundwater level decline. The study focuses on the groundwater response to a fairly sharp drop in the Caspian Sea level, using data on the Palchig Pilpilasi (mud volcano) deposits to the east of Chilov island. This problem simulates a fairly sharp drop in sea level by or about 1 meter over 10 years (3650 days).

Keywords: groundwater, climate action, sea level, Boussinesq equation, Caspian sea, Absheron peninsula

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